INTC

Intel Corporation
TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ
$114.68
-$3.70 (-3.22%)today
Conviction
5/ 10
Fair Value$47.23
Upside-58.81%
Signal0
Market Cap$313.2B
52W Range$17.67–$54.60
Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 1:09 PM65conviction-rescore
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$11.53
Current Price$43.13
Upside / Down-73.3%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

23.2%/yr

±5.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

50.7%/yr

±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

analysisMar 13
Conviction: unchanged
INTC 2026: 18A in HVM, Agentic AI CPU Tailwind, Foundry Losses Persist

Intel executing 5-node roadmap with 18A in HVM. Agentic AI creating surprise CPU demand tailwind. Foundry losses the key risk. Conviction 6: real option value on process recovery but execution uncerta...

sec_10kFeb 28
Conviction: unchanged
INTC FY2025 10-K: 18A Ramp Validates Process Comeback, But Foundry Losses Persist

Intel FY2025: revenue .9B (flat), gross margin 34.8% (improving), operating loss narrowed to -.2B from -.7B. Intel 18A entered high-volume production, NVIDIA paid B for strategic stake at $23.28/share...