IP

International Paper Company

Consumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersNASDAQ

$33.47

+$2.09 (6.25%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$45.52

Upside+36.00%

Signal21.6

Market Cap$18.2B

52W Range$33.57–$56.13

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:05 PM5→6conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$95.66

Current Price$35.45

Upside / Down+169.8%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)99.2%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-3.3%/yr

±5.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-13.3%/yr

±2.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

International Paper packaging volumes recovering; e-commerce corrugated demand structural tailwind.

Bear Case

Oversupply in containerboard; pulp/fiber cost inflation; destocking risk.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

IP 2025 10-K: Portfolio Simplification & EMEA Separation Catalyst

Portfolio-focused packaging pure-play post-DS Smith acquisition. Major EMEA separation catalyst (late 2026/early 2027). Divested non-core Cellulose Fibers (.5B). Restructuring initiatives ongoing. Pos...