Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.
Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
94.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-2.9%/yr
±4.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-4.5%/yr
±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Sign in to unlockMarket-leading advisory with 86% recurring revenue. Research subscriptions are non-discretionary enterprise spend — resilient in downturns. Gov spending normalization could re-accelerate CV growth above 5%+ by H2 2026.
CV growth at 1% (was 8-10%), wallet retention -6-7pts, government spending collapsed -$70M, consulting declining. At $165, ~18x forward P/E — not cheap enough for a decelerating compounder. EDGAR 10-K still unread.
CV growth re-accelerates above 5% (upgrade). Wallet retention stabilizes and improves. Gov spending normalizes. Negative: CV growth goes negative or retention falls below 80%.
Updated Mar 13
Contract value growth 1%, wallet retention down 6-7pts, government revenue collapsed by M. Consulting weakening. Digital Markets divestiture (M) signals restructuring need. Insights segment losing mom...
Gartner's FY2025 10-K reveals a company hitting a growth wall: core Insights contract value grew only 1%, wallet retention collapsed (down 6-7 points), government spending evaporated (contract value d...