ITW

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNASDAQ

$247.28

-$2.62 (-1.06%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$277.38

Upside+12.17%

Signal0

Market Cap$78.0B

52W Range$214.66–$303.16

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$94.89

Current Price$259.04

Upside / Down-63.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

22.9%/yr

±5.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

21.8%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Trailing P/E24.7x

Forward P/E21.3x

P/S4.6x

EPS (TTM)$10.48

Analyst Target$277.38

Analyst Upside12.2%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

ITW 2025: Margin mastery amid growth stasis

ITW delivers textbook operational execution: +130bps margin expansion from 80/20 process despite zero organic growth. Automotive OEM and Specialty outperform. NA geography weak. ROIC 29% but declining...