Invesco: DCF FV=$17 vs current $23.42 — model says 27% overvalued. P(above)=13.7%. Secular headwind from fee compression across active management. No earnings (PE undefined). AUM subject to market volatility. Thesis broken by structural shift to passive. Downgrading 5→4.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
11.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
8.3%/yr
±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
7.9%/yr
±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Invesco 2025: AUM growth to $2.2T masks yield compression (23 bps) from passive shift. Margins stable at 33% adjusted despite cost pressures. Fair value $24-30; key risk is continued yield compression...