J.B. Hunt: DCF FV=$94 vs current $197 — model says 52% overvalued. Only 7% analyst upside to $211. PE=32 for a trucking/logistics company is expensive. No DCF P(above) signal. The intermodal thesis requires freight volume recovery that has been consistently disappointing. Downgrading 5→4.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
15.6%/yr
±8.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
15.1%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
JBHT navigated flat revenues (-0.7% to .0B) with strong expense discipline, lifting operating income +4.1% and operating ratio to 92.8%. Segments mixed: JBI stable, DCS steady, ICS turnaround (loss na...