KEY

KeyCorp

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$21.33

-$0.16 (-0.74%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$24.07

Upside+12.85%

Signal7.71

Market Cap$23.4B

52W Range$12.80–$23.35

Next EarningsApr 16

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:06 PM5→6conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$22.36

Current Price$19.45

Upside / Down+15.0%

P(Undervalued)67.8%

P(20%+ Up)43.6%

P(15%+ Down)16.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

67.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

13.7%/yr

±5.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

2.9%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

KeyCorp Midwest bank; NIM recovery; Scotiabank partnership capital boost.

Bear Case

CRE office exposure; wholesale funding costs; credit normalization.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

KeyCorp 2025 10-K: Regional Bank Facing Headwinds

KeyCorp 10-K shows a classic late-cycle regional bank—exposed to CRE stress, NIM compression, and intensifying competition. Limited upside; downside risks elevated.