KHC

The Kraft Heinz Company

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNASDAQ

$24.01

+$0.48 (2.00%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$24.18

Upside+0.73%

Signal0.29

Market Cap$27.5B

52W Range$21.03–$30.42

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:06 PM5→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$30.79

Current Price$21.57

Upside / Down+42.7%

P(Undervalued)96.1%

P(20%+ Up)80.6%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

96.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-6.6%/yr

±2.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-3.7%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

KHC FY 2025 10-K Analysis: Margin Pressure, Goodwill Impairments, and Separation Uncertainty

KHC facing structural margin pressure from tariff-driven cost inflation, limited pricing power, and negative operating leverage from platform concentration. .3B impairment in 2025 signals overpaid M&A...