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0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
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FCF-Based Reverse DCF
70.4%/yr
±5.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
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Sign in to unlockSole-source positions on BQM-177, BQM-167, and MQM-178 drone programs give locked-in revenue for 10+ years. Valkyrie selected as Northrop MUX CCA platform — first expendable combat drone program of record. $1.45B MACH TB 2.0 hypersonic contract is the largest in company history. 1.8x book-to-bill with $1.6B backlog growing into a $1.6B revenue guide for 2026.
69% fixed-price contracts in an inflationary labor environment create real margin squeeze risk. Still a $7B company competing with Lockheed, RTX, and Northrop for follow-on orders. Expendable drone unit economics are intentionally low-margin by design — thesis depends on volume scaling faster than costs.
Valkyrie program cancellation, fixed-price margin compression below 10%, loss of sole-source target drone contracts
Updated Mar 11
Jefferies upgraded KTOS Hold to Buy with 85 PT (26% upside), stock surged 10.1% on April 7. 49M Navy rocket motor contract and Airbus Valkyrie UCAV collaboration reinforce hypersonics/drone thesis.
Kratos awarded M NSWC PHD contract for Oriole rocket motors and thrust vector control systems supporting Navy missile and test programs. Also appointed David King to Board. Contract flow continues to ...
KTOS won .8M Space Force award for medium missile tracking ground system and M NSWC Oriole rocket motor contract this week. Airbus Valkyrie first flight prep underway. Stock pulled back on 650x P/E co...
Sole-source franchise model with Valkyrie as first CCA Program of Record. CEO signals two additional sole-source tactical drone wins late 2026. MACH TB 2.0 hypersonic call option. Conviction 8/10 at $...
Kratos disclosed March 3 production contract for ~$7M Counter-UAS system. Stock +6.7% on contract wins and growth outlook, then dropped following Red Cat negative news that may be a buying opportunity...
KTOS rallied 6.7% mid-week on contract wins and Valkyrie program optimism. Gave back ~5% Thursday after drone peer Red Cat (RCAT) reported larger-than-expected losses — sector sentiment drag, not KTOS...
KTOS surged 6.7% on March 17-18 driven by ongoing contract wins (Counter-UAS, SDA fire control, drone collaborations) and fresh growth outlook from analysts. Valkyrie tactical drone program advancing....
KTOS surged 5.88% on Q4 earnings beat. New ~M Counter-UAS production contract, Space Development Agency Advanced Fire Control program completing Critical Design Review, drone collaborations expanding....
FY2025 results confirm thesis: .347B revenue (+18.5%), EBITDA .9M (8.9%). FY2026 guidance .635B midpoint (+21%). Three franchise-level programs — Valkyrie CCA (Program of Record), MACH TB 2.0 (.45B hy...
FY2025: $1.347B revenue (+16.6% organic), $119.9M EBITDA (8.9%). 2026 guidance $1.595-1.675B, EBITDA ~10%. CRITICAL: Northrop won MUX TACAIR CCA with Valkyrie as the aircraft — program of record confi...
KTOS: $1.57B backlog (1.8x book-to-bill), $870M revenue, backlog-driven growth. Valkyrie + target drones + hypersonic (MACH TB 2.0 $1.45B) core growth drivers. Moat: first-to-market, design-in positio...