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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
93.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-2.0%/yr
±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-1.5%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlock$49B backlog, 87% US government revenue, DOGE bear case overstated (mission-critical contracts), DCF FV=$225 vs $169 (33% upside), defense modernization + AI government contract secular tailwind.
Below 200dma (-4 tech score), MACD negative, below both MAs. Caution regime makes this a WAIT. DOGE budget risk is real even if overstated. RSI 41 — no setup yet.
Defense budget cuts >10%, major contract cancellations, DOGE broader mandate hitting IT services
Updated Mar 18
LDOS completed acquisition of ENTRUST Solutions Group from Kohlberg for $2.4B, expanding energy infrastructure capabilities. Simultaneously secured $454.9M contract to modernize USAF Cloud One platfor...
Leidos hit an 8-day losing streak with cumulative -8% decline (~.7B market cap loss), but analyst upgraded to Buy from Hold. Stock near , approaching stop. Thesis intact but price pressure warrants m...
LDOS hit 7-day losing streak with -6.7% cumulative loss (.4B market cap wiped) despite securing .9M AF NorthStar 2030 Cloud One contract on March 20. Technically broken, macro/defense IT sentiment wei...
LDOS beat Q4 2025 with record FCF and 680bps margin expansion. 2026 guidance 17.5-17.9B. DOGE bear case overstated — defense IT is mission-critical, not discretionary. FCF engine and margin expansion ...
Leidos is a pure-play government services provider with strong geopolitical tailwinds and a diversified contract mix. Core thesis: secular growth in defense/national security spending + AI/space moder...