Current $95, target $120 = 26% upside. DCF FV $103, P(above)=57.9%. Thesis: land-light model (98% optioned) gives leverage to affordability recovery without balance sheet risk. ASP compression (-7.5%) is cyclical, not structural. Volumes stable. Missing element: no near-term catalyst — affordability recovery depends on Fed rate cuts that havent materialized; could be 6-12 months out.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
70.4% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-2.2%/yr
±7.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
LEN FY25: volumes flat-to-up (+2.9% YoY), ASP down 7.5% YoY to K. Earnings down 46% to .1B. Margins compressed to 15-16% guidance for Q1 FY26. Land-light model executing well (98% optioned). Affordabi...