LEN

Lennar Corporation

Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNASDAQ

$89.78

+$0.96 (1.07%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$96.29

Upside+7.25%

Signal5.08

Market Cap$21.2B

52W Range$83.03–$144.24

Next EarningsMar 12

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 1:09 PM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$108.75

Current Price$90.55

Upside / Down+20.1%

P(Undervalued)70.4%

P(20%+ Up)50.1%

P(15%+ Down)16.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

70.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.2%/yr

±7.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

LEN FY2025 10-K: Margin Pressure from Affordability Crisis, but Volume Growth & Operational Efficiency Gains

LEN FY25: volumes flat-to-up (+2.9% YoY), ASP down 7.5% YoY to K. Earnings down 46% to .1B. Margins compressed to 15-16% guidance for Q1 FY26. Land-light model executing well (98% optioned). Affordabi...