Current $478 is 86% above DCF FV $257. No DCF P(above) data. Prior target $520 = 9% upside. Residential HVAC volumes down 13% (-17% resi, -5% commercial). Even with strong pricing (+9%) and Duro Dyne contribution, paying 86% premium to DCF FV for a volume-declining business is hard to justify. Conv 6 was too generous — prior reasoning cited housing uncertainty while keeping score neutral.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
16.2%/yr
±5.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
20.1%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
LII faces volume headwinds in residential HVAC (down 17%) reflecting housing market weakness, but pricing discipline (10% in HCS, 8% in BCS) and commercial resilience (5% growth) provide offset. Gross...