LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.
TechnologyCommunication EquipmentNASDAQ
$854.96
-$97.10 (-11.36%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$740.09
Upside-13.44%
Signal0
Market Cap$64.1B
52W Range$48.51–$836.91
Next EarningsMay 5

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$23.67
Current Price$706.35
Upside / Down-96.6%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

94.8%/yr

±4.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

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Quick Take

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Trailing P/E232.6x
Forward P/E53.9x
P/S27.4x
EPS (TTM)$3.47
Analyst Target$740.09
Analyst Upside-13.4%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

analysisMar 9
Conviction: unchanged
LITE: Lumentum — Light Engine of the AI Supercycle

Lumentum is optical backbone of AI data centers. OCS tech is key catalyst — $100M/q target by end 2026. Post-900% run valuation is the primary risk. Fascinating business, difficult entry.

analysisMar 9
Conviction: unchanged
LITE: Lumentum — Light Engine of the AI Supercycle

Lumentum is the optical backbone of AI data centers. OCS tech is the key catalyst — $100M/q target by end 2026. Post-900% run valuation is the primary risk. Fascinating business, difficult entry.