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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
91.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
18.2%/yr
±4.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
44.8%/yr
±4.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.
Sign in to unlockLargest TAM in healthcare; durable pricing power; AI-driven pipeline optionality.
33x forward PE high in Risk-Off; supply constraints limit Zepbound; oral GLP-1 competition.
Novo Nordisk oral semaglutide gains faster share; Medicare negotiation unfavorable.
Updated Mar 30
FDA approved Lilly's Foundayo oral GLP-1 for obesity, shares up 6.5%; acquiring Centessa for 6.3B reinforces structural GLP-1 dominance and pipeline depth thesis.
Major catalyst: FDA approved LLY's oral GLP-1 Foundayo (orforglipron) today, April 1, 2026. Available via LillyDirect starting April 6 with broad retail/telehealth rollout. 27 lbs avg weight loss at h...
Eli Lilly signed a .75B deal with Hong Kong-based Insilico Medicine to bring AI-developed drugs to global markets. Signals Lilly is diversifying pipeline with AI-assisted drug discovery, expanding bey...
LLY Q4 2025: Mounjaro 7.4B (+110%), Zepbound 4.2B (+123%), EPS 7.54 vs 6.67 est. 2026 guidance 80-83B (+25%). 70% share of new obesity Rx. Oral GLP-1 (orforglipron) Phase 3 next catalyst. Bear: pricin...
LLY 10-K for FY2025 confirms blockbuster GLP-1 trajectory. Q4 2025 revenue of .29B (+43% YoY) crushed .96B consensus. Mounjaro/Zepbound account for 56% of total 2025 revenues. 2026 guidance of -83B im...