LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralNASDAQ

$886.61

-$23.31 (-2.63%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$1,200

Upside+35.50%

Signal0.307

Market Cap$792.9B

52W Range$623.78–$1,133.95

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$1200.22

Current Price$906.70

Upside / Down+32.4%

P(Undervalued)91.5%

P(20%+ Up)68.3%

P(15%+ Down)0.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

91.5% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

18.2%/yr

±4.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

44.8%/yr

±4.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Largest TAM in healthcare; durable pricing power; AI-driven pipeline optionality.

Bear Case

33x forward PE high in Risk-Off; supply constraints limit Zepbound; oral GLP-1 competition.

Thesis Breakers

Novo Nordisk oral semaglutide gains faster share; Medicare negotiation unfavorable.

Updated Mar 30

Research Feed

newsMar 30

Conviction: unchanged

LLY: .75B Insilico Medicine AI Drug Deal — Expands Pipeline Beyond GLP-1

Eli Lilly signed a .75B deal with Hong Kong-based Insilico Medicine to bring AI-developed drugs to global markets. Signals Lilly is diversifying pipeline with AI-assisted drug discovery, expanding bey...

analysisMar 18

Conviction: unchanged

LLY: GLP-1 Dominance Accelerating — B Revenue Guidance, Oral GLP-1 Next Catalyst

LLY Q4 2025: Mounjaro 7.4B (+110%), Zepbound 4.2B (+123%), EPS 7.54 vs 6.67 est. 2026 guidance 80-83B (+25%). 70% share of new obesity Rx. Oral GLP-1 (orforglipron) Phase 3 next catalyst. Bear: pricin...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

LLY 10-K FY2025: GLP-1 Dominance Intact, Volume Overwhelms Pricing Headwinds

LLY 10-K for FY2025 confirms blockbuster GLP-1 trajectory. Q4 2025 revenue of .29B (+43% YoY) crushed .96B consensus. Mounjaro/Zepbound account for 56% of total 2025 revenues. 2026 guidance of -83B im...