Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
15.3% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
10.1%/yr
±6.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
12.4%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Lockheed Martin Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services in the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.
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FY2025 sales +6% to B; record B backlog (2.6x sales, BTB 1.2); segment OP +11% to .7B but hit by .6B program charges (classified Aero + CMHP + TUHP); FCF .9B beat; 2026 guidance: -80B sales, segment O...