Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.
Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
99.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-1.4%/yr
±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-4.8%/yr
±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.
Sign in to unlockNew CEO could reinvigorate Americas; valuation 11x PE cheap historically; China expansion intact.
No permanent CEO = no strategy; Americas flatline worsens in macro downturn; tariff risk on apparel.
Interim CEO installs replacement doubling down on Americas discounting.
Updated Mar 30
LULU FY2025 10-K reveals Americas growth inflection negative (-1% vs +3.9%), offset by strong China (+28.9%). CEO transition creates near-term execution risk. Valuation fair but not compelling given u...
Americas collapsing (-5% comps), tariffs will reduce FY2025 OI ~M, CEO transition underway. China growing strong (+24% comps) but can't fully offset. Margin compression real. Downside risk elevated.