LUV

Southwest Airlines Co.

IndustrialsAirlinesNASDAQ

$42.95

+$2.29 (5.32%)today

Conviction

3/ 10

Fair Value$44.82

Upside+4.35%

Signal1.3

Market Cap$19.4B

52W Range$23.82–$55.11

Next EarningsApr 22

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Apr 8, 2026, 12:21 PM4→3sec-read

Mar 18, 2026, 11:07 PM5→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$47.02

Current Price$39.41

Upside / Down+19.3%

P(Undervalued)64.9%

P(20%+ Up)49.5%

P(15%+ Down)24.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

64.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

0.8%/yr

±9.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-5.8%/yr

±2.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Southwest Airlines low-cost model; domestic leisure demand; Elliott-driven operational changes.

Bear Case

Revenue management overhaul execution risk; fuel cost exposure; activist disruption.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kApr 8

Conviction: unchanged

LUV 10-K/A + 8-K + 13D/A: Elliott Selling Aggressively, New $500M Debt

Elliott selling ~10.4M shares (activist exit signal). New $500M debt. Activist premium deflating. Stock -27% in 6 wks. Pre-earnings watchlist. Conviction maintained at 4.

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Southwest Airlines 2025 10-K/A: Capacity Discipline, Labor Cost Headwinds, Consumer Resilience Test

Southwest Airlines filed amended 2025 10-K (exhibit correction only). Faces 2026 operating headwinds: labor cost inflation, capacity discipline across industry, consumer health uncertainty. Domestic l...