LW

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNASDAQ

$43.18

+$0.37 (0.86%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$46.36

Upside+7.37%

Signal5.16

Market Cap$5.6B

52W Range$37.62–$67.07

Next EarningsApr 1

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 3:09 PM6→7conviction-rescore

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$130.32

Current Price$40.00

Upside / Down+225.8%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-6.5%/yr

±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

12.4%/yr

±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

Lamb Weston frozen potato leader; quick service restaurant volumes sticky; pricing power demonstrated.

Bear Case

Input cost inflation; QSR traffic softness if consumer pullback; private label competition.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Lamb Weston Q2 FY2026: Volume Growth Masking Mix Deterioration

8% volume growth offsets 8% price/mix decline, keeping sales flat. Gross profit up but masked by Argentina startup costs and softer JV earnings. Capital intensity declining as expansion projects compl...