LYB

LyondellBasell Industries N.V.

Basic MaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsNASDAQ

$66.65

-$3.26 (-4.89%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$67.18

Upside+0.79%

Signal0.32

Market Cap$23.8B

52W Range$41.58–$83.94

Next EarningsMay 1

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:07 PM5→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 98% valid

Fair Value$123.83

Current Price$73.32

Upside / Down+68.9%

P(Undervalued)82.9%

P(20%+ Up)74.4%

P(15%+ Down)12.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

82.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-3.8%/yr

±8.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

39.7%/yr

±4.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

LyondellBasell FY2025: Restructuring amid cycle downturn, strategic pivot toward CLCS

2025 marked major structural changes: Houston refinery shutdown (GHG reduction +3M metric tons Scope 1&2), European divestiture announced (4 sites, 25% O&P-EAI capacity), PO JV permanent closure. Q3 s...