Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
92.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-0.3%/yr
±6.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
64.9%/yr
±4.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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LYV posted record 2025 with .2B revenue (+9%) and .37B AOI (+10%), driven by stadium touring, international expansion, and deferred revenue inflection (+21%). Concerts AOI surged 30% on fan growth (15...