MA

Mastercard Incorporated

Financial ServicesCredit ServicesNASDAQ

$493.98

-$5.58 (-1.13%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$657.11

Upside+33.02%

Signal23.11

Market Cap$445.0B

52W Range$470–$601.77

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$371.64

Current Price$496.32

Upside / Down-25.1%

P(Undervalued)2.7%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)80.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

2.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

19.0%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

12.5%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisMar 30

Conviction: unchanged

MA — Conviction Synthesis: Payment Duopoly + VAS Re-rating = High-Quality Compounder

MA is a high-conviction compounder at $494. Near-duopoly payment rail + VAS/AI re-rating + 33% upside to consensus ($660). 47% net margins, $14.5B OCF, 16% revenue CAGR. Primary risk: interchange/Durb...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

Mastercard FY2025 10-K: Digital Payment Compounder Firing on All Cylinders

MA delivered 16% revenue and net income growth in FY2025 with .8B revenue and .0B net income. GDV of $10.6T grew 15% (local currency). Exceptional cash generation ($14.5B from ops), aggressive capital...