Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
26.8%/yr
±6.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
27.8%/yr
±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Marriott delivered solid FY2025 results — net fee revenues +5% to $5.3B, net income +10% to $2.6B — but US & Canada RevPAR grew only 0.7%, signaling meaningful weakness in business transient demand pa...