MCHP

Microchip Technology Incorporated

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$94.65

+$3.68 (3.89%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$86.67

Upside-8.43%

Signal0

Market Cap$38.7B

52W Range$34.14–$83.35

Next EarningsMay 7

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$8.77

Current Price$62.97

Upside / Down-86.1%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

34.0%/yr

±3.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

43.0%/yr

±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.

Forward P/E24.9x

P/S8.2x

EPS (TTM)-$0.30

Analyst Target$86.67

Analyst Upside-8.4%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

MCHP 10-Q Analysis: Inventory Recovery Validated, Tax Risks Linger

Inventory correction underway post-destocking cycle. Margin recovery (59.6% Q3) validates product positioning in AI/data center. Debt trajectory manageable but tax liabilities uncertain. Hold pending ...