MGM

MGM Resorts International

Consumer CyclicalResorts & CasinosNASDAQ

$43.67

+$6.97 (15.96%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$42.61

Upside-2.42%

Signal0

Market Cap$10.2B

52W Range$27.78–$40.16

Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 3:10 PM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$54.11

Current Price$35.37

Upside / Down+53.0%

P(Undervalued)83.3%

P(20%+ Up)72.0%

P(15%+ Down)10.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

83.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-1.4%/yr

±7.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

23.2%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

MGM Resorts Vegas Strip pricing power; BetMGM digital growth; Japan IR optionality.

Bear Case

Macau VIP volume volatility; digital gambling competitive intensity; consumer discretionary risk.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

FY 2025 10-K: Strong domestic recovery, Macau stabilization, strategic positioning clarity

MGM 2025 10-K shows domestic recovery, Macau stabilizing, strategic clarity on Japan/digital/UAE growth. Balance sheet leveraged; execution risk on 2026 labor and Macau concession terms. Premium brand...