MKC

McCormick & Company, Incorporated

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNASDAQ

$47.37

+$0.41 (0.87%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$62.69

Upside+32.35%

Signal19.41

Market Cap$13.8B

52W Range$47.52–$78.16

Next EarningsMar 31

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$59.82

Current Price$53.23

Upside / Down+12.4%

P(Undervalued)67.8%

P(20%+ Up)39.8%

P(15%+ Down)14.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

67.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

0.3%/yr

±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

2.5%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

McCormick spice/flavor moat; Consumer Cayman private label pressure fading; pricing held.

Bear Case

Volume elasticity concerns post-price hikes; exposure to foodservice slowdown.

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

McCormick 10-K: Margin Compression Amid Pricing & Tariff Headwinds

MKC facing margin pressure from inflation/tariffs despite pricing actions. Growth modest. Mexico acquisition provides growth lever but adds leverage. Fair value ~-53 assuming 17x forward P/E; current ...