No conviction changes recorded
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
67.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
0.3%/yr
±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
2.5%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
MKC facing margin pressure from inflation/tariffs despite pricing actions. Growth modest. Mexico acquisition provides growth lever but adds leverage. Fair value ~-53 assuming 17x forward P/E; current ...