MO

Altria Group, Inc.

Consumer DefensiveTobaccoNASDAQ

$69.58

-$3.90 (-5.60%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$65.50

Upside-5.86%

Signal0

Market Cap$112.7B

52W Range$54.70–$70.51

Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$80.40

Current Price$64.47

Upside / Down+24.7%

P(Undervalued)90.7%

P(20%+ Up)58.6%

P(15%+ Down)0.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

90.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-4.2%/yr

±2.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-11.0%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States.

Trailing P/E16.3x

Forward P/E11.5x

P/S5.6x

EPS (TTM)$4.12

Analyst Target$65.50

Analyst Upside-5.9%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

Altria Group (MO) — FY2025 10-K Deep Dive

MO delivered 4.4% adjusted EPS growth (.19→.42) but fell short of its mid-single digit CAGR goal (3.6% 3yr CAGR). NJOY ACE banned from US market via ITC patent ruling, triggering ~.9B impairment. Ciga...