MOD

Modine Manufacturing Company
Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsNASDAQ
$278.91
+$32.12 (11.51%)today
Conviction
7/ 10
Fair Value$251.14
Upside-9.96%
Signal0
Market Cap$12.7B
52W Range$67.80–$249
Next EarningsMay 19

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM87
Mar 26, 2026, 5:04 AM78sec-read
Mar 24, 2026, 5:03 AM67sec-read
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$41.36
Current Price$196.55
Upside / Down-79.0%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

37.1%/yr

±2.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

64.0%/yr

±4.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Data center cooling revenue up 78% YoY, now 51% of Climate Solutions segment. Liquid cooling market growing from $6.6B to $38B by 2033 at 29% CAGR. Spinning off Performance Technologies to become a pure-play on the AI power/cooling bottleneck.

Bear Case

Three acquisitions ($186M) funded by debt — long-term debt spiked to $571M. Gross margin compressed 140bps despite 30% revenue growth, suggesting integration friction or unfavorable mix. Performance Technologies segment still dragging (-3.5% revenue), and no spinoff timeline disclosed.

Thesis Breakers

Data center cooling margin compression below 20%, spinoff cancelled, debt/EBITDA above 3.5x

Updated Mar 11

Research Feed

newsApr 7
Conviction: unchanged
MOD Spinning Off Performance Technologies in 1B Reverse Morris Trust Deal with Gentherm (Candidate)

Modine announced RMT transaction valuing Performance Technologies at ~1B (6.8x EBITDA), with Modine shareholders receiving ~790M Gentherm stock plus ~210M cash to Modine. Remaining pure-play Climate S...

newsMar 30
Conviction: unchanged
MOD: Added to S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index; +9.7% in March

Modine added to the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index in March 2026, driving 7-10% gains. Index inclusion brings new passive buyer flows. Stock at ~, near entry target zone. RMT spin H2 2026 rema...

sec_10qMar 27
Conviction: unchanged
MOD 10-Q Q3 FY26 Deep Read: Data Center +78%, Pension Terminated, Balance Sheet Stress is Growth Investment

Deep re-read of Q3 FY26 10-Q confirms thesis. Data center revenue +78% to $296.9M in Q3. Three acquisitions (AbsolutAire, LB White, Climate by Design) add $186M invested to Climate Solutions. Gross ma...

sec_10qMar 26
Conviction: unchanged
MOD 10-Q Q3 FY26: RMT Spin Formalized, Data Center +78%, Pure-Play Transformation Confirmed

Q3 FY26 10-Q confirms thesis comprehensively. Data center revenue +78% YoY to $296.9M in the quarter. RMT spin with Gentherm announced Jan 2026: MOD receives $210M cash, shareholders get ~40% of combi...

sec_10qMar 24
Conviction: unchanged
MOD 10-Q Q3 FY26: Data Center-Driven Growth Accelerates, RMT Deal Signal

Q3 data center +78% validates AI/HPC cooling thesis. RMT deal removes Performance Tech drag.

sec_10qMar 24
Conviction: unchanged
MOD 10-Q FQ3 2026 + Gentherm RMT Analysis

Q3 data center +78% YoY validates thesis. Gentherm RMT transforms MOD to pure-play Climate Solutions. Strategic clarity dramatically improved.

sec_10qMar 10
Conviction: unchanged
MOD 10-Q FQ3 2026 Analysis

MOD's data center business accelerating (+45.5% 9M) but margin profile weakening from acquisitions. Debt spike to .7M manageable with CF gen, but leverage elevated 2.5x. Performance Tech segment stall...