MOH

Molina Healthcare, Inc.

HealthcareHealthcare PlansNASDAQ

$173.60

-$7.34 (-4.23%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$150.65

Upside-13.22%

Signal0

Market Cap$7.5B

52W Range$121.06–$358.89

Next EarningsApr 22

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$4013.15

Current Price$139.41

Upside / Down+2778.7%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.3%/yr

±10.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K: Medical Cost Inflation Crisis Pressures Margins

Medical cost inflation crisis (MCR 91.7%) offsets strong revenue growth. Strategic pullback from Medicare MAPD and low-margin Marketplace to focus on Medicaid. Earnings remain pressured in 2026-2027 b...