MOH

Molina Healthcare, Inc.

HealthcareHealthcare PlansNASDAQ

$140.10

-$8.05 (-5.74%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$150.65

Upside+7.53%

Signal3.76

Market Cap$6.9B

52W Range$121.06–$359.97

Next EarningsApr 22

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$4013.15

Current Price$139.41

Upside / Down+2778.7%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.3%/yr

±10.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K: Medical Cost Inflation Crisis Pressures Margins

Medical cost inflation crisis (MCR 91.7%) offsets strong revenue growth. Strategic pullback from Medicare MAPD and low-margin Marketplace to focus on Medicaid. Earnings remain pressured in 2026-2027 b...