MOS

The Mosaic Company

Basic MaterialsAgricultural InputsNASDAQ

$23.90

+$2.14 (8.93%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$31.27

Upside+30.85%

Signal15.43

Market Cap$8.4B

52W Range$22.37–$38.23

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 80% valid

Fair Value$21.79

Current Price$23.59

Upside / Down-7.6%

P(Undervalued)45.6%

P(20%+ Up)34.7%

P(15%+ Down)45.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

45.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

4.7%/yr

±12.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

71.7%/yr

±4.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Crop nutrient demand is inelastic — global food security imperative underpins long-term prices. If potash/phosphate recover to mid-cycle, MOS trades at 6-7x EBITDA vs current ~9x on trough earnings. Cheap on a recovery basis.

Bear Case

FY2025 revealed structural margin compression. Commodity deflation may persist with Brazilian potash production expanding. Asset write-offs signal impairment culture. Debt refinanced at worse rates. No near-term catalyst.

Thesis Breakers

Potash price falls below /t; second consecutive year of EBITDA margin below 15%; further impairment charges on major assets

Updated Mar 16

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

2025 10-K: Asset Rationalization, Margin Compression, Debt Refinancing

FY2025 marked a strategic inflection: Mosaic aggressively divested underperforming assets (Patos de Minas, Taquari, Carlsbad) while refinancing debt at higher rates (4.35-4.60%). Revenue headwinds fro...