MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNASDAQ

$242.23

+$6.14 (2.54%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$217.44

Upside-10.23%

Signal0

Market Cap$72.3B

52W Range$115.10–$255.77

Next EarningsMay 5

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 98% valid

Fair Value$645.34

Current Price$232.53

Upside / Down+177.5%

P(Undervalued)92.1%

P(20%+ Up)89.0%

P(15%+ Down)6.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

92.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-3.0%/yr

±10.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.1%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States.

Trailing P/E18.5x

Forward P/E14.1x

P/S0.5x

EPS (TTM)$13.23

Analyst Target$217.44

Analyst Upside-10.2%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

MPC FY2025 10-K: Scale, Integration, Margin Stability

MPC 10-K: 2,787 mbpd crude throughput (+73 YoY), 3,718 mbpd refined product sales. Three-segment model with Refining (scale), Midstream (MPLX 64% hedge), Renewable (914M gal/yr). Total debt .3B, matur...