MRK

Merck & Co., Inc.

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralNASDAQ

$118.72

+$2.91 (2.45%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$128.96

Upside+8.63%

Signal4.32

Market Cap$300.2B

52W Range$73.31–$125.14

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$95.19

Current Price$114.18

Upside / Down-16.6%

P(Undervalued)14.3%

P(20%+ Up)1.5%

P(15%+ Down)54.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

14.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.4%/yr

±3.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

14.7%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisMar 13

Conviction: unchanged

MRK 2026: Keytruda Carries the Load, Gardasil Zero in China, Winrevair Emerging — Patent Cliff Looms

Merck is a dominant oncology franchise with Keytruda at 49% of sales. Gardasil China exposure fully wiped out. Winrevair scaling. The 2028 Keytruda patent cliff is a real, known risk. Conviction 5: ch...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

MRK 10-K FY2025: Keytruda Carries the Load, Gardasil Craters, Winrevair Emerging

FY2025 total sales B (+1.3% YoY). Keytruda/Keytruda Qlex grew 7.4% to .7B but Gardasil collapsed 39% to .2B on China market headwinds. Winrevair (PAH) exploded 244% to .4B — the next growth engine. Ca...