MRNA

Moderna, Inc.

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$47.19

-$0.07 (-0.15%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$45.15

Upside-4.32%

Signal0

Market Cap$20.2B

52W Range$22.28–$59.55

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:07 PM5→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$17.08

Current Price$51.38

Upside / Down-66.8%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

37.9%/yr

±2.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

49.1%/yr

±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

MRNA 10-K FY2025: COVID Decline, intismeran Upside, Pipeline Risk

MRNA FY25: COVID decline offset by pipeline optionality. intismeran melanoma data strong; flu launch critical 2026-2027. Fair value -45B on probability-weighted pipeline; current B valuation reflects ...