MTB

M&T Bank Corporation

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$216.11

+$3.85 (1.78%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$232.18

Upside+7.43%

Signal2.97

Market Cap$32.8B

52W Range$152.66–$239

Next EarningsApr 15

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:08 PM5→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$353.68

Current Price$198.15

Upside / Down+78.5%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)98.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-6.5%/yr

±3.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-17.8%/yr

±1.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

M&T Bank 2025 10-K: Northeast Regional Powerhouse in Margin Compression Cycle

MTB: .5B Northeast regional bank facing 3-5yr NIM compression from Fed plateau. Strong deposit franchise (78% core), but elevated CRE criticized loans and securities losses. Capital adequate but const...