MTCH

Match Group, Inc.

Communication ServicesInternet Content & InformationNASDAQ

$36.13

+$0.48 (1.32%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$36.29

Upside+0.45%

Signal0.18

Market Cap$7.5B

52W Range$26.39–$39.20

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 1:05 AM5→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$26.30

Current Price$31.06

Upside / Down-15.3%

P(Undervalued)23.6%

P(20%+ Up)6.3%

P(15%+ Down)50.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

23.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

5.3%/yr

±4.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-2.2%/yr

±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Match Group dating apps (Tinder, Hinge); Hinge international growth; GenZ monetization.

Bear Case

Tinder DAU decline structural; GenZ changing dating behavior; AI-driven matching competition.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

MTCH FY2025: User Attrition & Restructuring Drag — Portfolio Shift to Quality Backfiring in Near Term

MTCH 10-K shows painful user traction loss from 2025 portfolio pivot toward higher-intent/safety-first positioning. Tinder core brand under stress. Restructuring underway to offset revenue pressure vi...