Trading above DCF FV ($23 vs $30.91 price), P(above current)=15.9% — model says likely overvalued. Tinder MAU declining, no clear turnaround catalyst. Old $38 target stale. Below 200dma.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
23.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
5.3%/yr
±4.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-2.2%/yr
±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
MTCH 10-K shows painful user traction loss from 2025 portfolio pivot toward higher-intent/safety-first positioning. Tinder core brand under stress. Restructuring underway to offset revenue pressure vi...