MU

Micron Technology, Inc.

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$971

+$266.16 (27.41%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$525.47

Upside-45.88%

Signal0

Market Cap$474.3B

52W Range$63.52–$471.34

Next EarningsJun 24

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 7:15 AM7→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$70.77

Current Price$422.88

Upside / Down-83.3%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

96.3%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

Micron HBM3E AI memory demand inflection; DRAM/NAND pricing recovery underway; CHIPS Act capex benefit.

Bear Case

Memory cycle volatility; HBM supply catch-up by Samsung/SK Hynix; geopolitical Taiwan/China risk.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

analysisMar 16

Conviction: unchanged

MU Pre-Earnings Analysis: HBM Supercycle + Taiwan Expansion = Near-Term Catalyst

Q2 FY2026 earnings Wed Mar 18 — 97% probability of beat per prediction markets. Guidance: $18.7B revenue, $8.42 non-GAAP EPS. HBM 2026 fully booked. Taiwan fab acquisition ($1.8B) closed mid-March. Bu...

sec_10qFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

Micron Q1 FY2026 10-Q: HBM Supercycle in Full Force

Blowout quarter — revenue +57% YoY to $13.6B, gross margins exploding to 56% from 38% a year ago, net income $5.24B. CMBU (cloud/HBM) segment doubled YoY. Rapid debt paydown, $12B cash pile. YMTC liti...