NCLH

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$18.34

+$2.08 (11.35%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$26.07

Upside+42.14%

Signal16.86

Market Cap$8.4B

52W Range$15.24–$27.18

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 3:10 PM6→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 97% valid

Fair Value$14.27

Current Price$18.95

Upside / Down-24.7%

P(Undervalued)27.0%

P(20%+ Up)13.8%

P(15%+ Down)59.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

27.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

18.1%/yr

±8.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

Norwegian Cruise Line premium brands (NCL/Oceania/Regent); pricing record highs; 2026 capacity growth.

Bear Case

Geopolitical itinerary disruptions; discretionary spending risk; fuel cost exposure.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Q3 2025 10-Q: Occupancy Decline Signals Demand Deceleration Despite Revenue Growth

NCLH occupancy declining despite revenue growth, signaling demand softening. Leverage elevated at 7.5x ND/EBITDA; debt maturity wall 2026-2027 dependent on capital markets. Unhedged euro exposure on $...