Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
4.4% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
15.7%/yr
±4.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
17.3%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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