NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

Communication ServicesEntertainmentNASDAQ

$86.02

-$3.16 (-3.67%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$113.90

Upside+32.41%

Signal19.45

Market Cap$420.8B

52W Range$75.01–$134.12

Next EarningsApr 16

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$55.50

Current Price$91.82

Upside / Down-39.6%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)99.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

24.6%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

42.4%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisMar 30

Conviction: unchanged

NFLX — Conviction Synthesis: Standalone Fair Value + WBD Deal Optionality

NFLX at $92.97 is slightly below standalone fair value (~$100-108). The WBD deal is the binary catalyst — success = $140+, failure = back to $85 standalone. Business quality is exceptional (29.5% op m...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

NFLX 10-K FY2025: Margin Machine Meets Transformational M&A

Netflix delivered a clean FY2025 with 16% revenue growth, 29.5% operating margin (+280bps), and .15B operating cash flow — all ahead of internal targets. The filing is dominated by the Dec 4, 2025 WBD...