NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

Communication ServicesEntertainmentNASDAQ

$92.29

-$2.35 (-2.55%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$113.43

Upside+22.91%

Signal13.75

Market Cap$394.4B

52W Range$75.01–$134.12

Next EarningsApr 16

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$55.50

Current Price$91.82

Upside / Down-39.6%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)99.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

24.6%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

42.4%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

analysisMar 30

Conviction: unchanged

NFLX — Conviction Synthesis: Standalone Fair Value + WBD Deal Optionality

NFLX at $92.97 is slightly below standalone fair value (~$100-108). The WBD deal is the binary catalyst — success = $140+, failure = back to $85 standalone. Business quality is exceptional (29.5% op m...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

NFLX 10-K FY2025: Margin Machine Meets Transformational M&A

Netflix delivered a clean FY2025 with 16% revenue growth, 29.5% operating margin (+280bps), and .15B operating cash flow — all ahead of internal targets. The filing is dominated by the Dec 4, 2025 WBD...