NOC

Northrop Grumman Corporation

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$692.49

-$30.91 (-4.46%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$725.72

Upside+4.80%

Signal0

Market Cap$95.8B

52W Range$450.13–$774

Next EarningsApr 21

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$396.33

Current Price$706.95

Upside / Down-43.9%

P(Undervalued)0.7%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)94.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

16.0%/yr

±7.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

22.0%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally.

Trailing P/E23.1x

Forward P/E22.2x

P/S2.3x

EPS (TTM)$29.06

Analyst Target$725.72

Analyst Upside4.8%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

NOC FY2025 10-K: Defense Surge Catalyst vs. B-21 Execution Risk

NOC FY2025: Revenue +2% to .95B (organic +3%), segment margins compressed to 10.4% from 11.1% due to B-21 Q1 loss provision. Backlog surged to $95.7B. B-21 LRIP losses STABLE in Q4 2025 — the key infl...