Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
19.9%/yr
±9.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
23.6%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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NUE volumes stabilizing with 7% ton growth; margin compression in products segment offset by strong mills performance; balance sheet fortress; macro headwinds from overcapacity and Chinese export surg...