NVR

NVR, Inc.
Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNASDAQ
$6,529.66
+$47.18 (0.72%)today
Conviction
5/ 10
Fair Value$8,000
Upside+22.52%
Signal11.26
Market Cap$18.1B
52W Range$6,301.03–$8,618.28
Next EarningsApr 21

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$5582.11
Current Price$6369.38
Upside / Down-12.4%
P(Undervalued)24.1%
P(20%+ Up)4.7%
P(15%+ Down)44.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

24.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

3.5%/yr

±5.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.2%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

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