NVR

NVR, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNASDAQ

$6,104.80

+$57.46 (0.94%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$8,000

Upside+31.04%

Signal15.52

Market Cap$18.3B

52W Range$6,301.03–$8,618.28

Next EarningsApr 21

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 3:11 AM4→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$5582.11

Current Price$6369.38

Upside / Down-12.4%

P(Undervalued)24.1%

P(20%+ Up)4.7%

P(15%+ Down)44.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

24.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

3.5%/yr

±5.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.2%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 Revenue Flat, Margins Compressed by Affordability Headwinds

NVR FY2025: Revenues flat, net income -20%, margins compressed 240bps to 21.2%. Affordability crisis driving 17% cancellation rate and -10% order declines. South East segment in severe distress (margi...