ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

IndustrialsTruckingNASDAQ

$188.84

+$6.49 (3.43%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$199.29

Upside+5.53%

Signal0

Market Cap$39.7B

52W Range$126.01–$221.63

Next EarningsApr 22

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$44.12

Current Price$183.92

Upside / Down-76.0%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

34.5%/yr

±3.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

31.3%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

Trailing P/E39.2x

Forward P/E31.4x

P/S7.2x

EPS (TTM)$4.84

Analyst Target$199.29

Analyst Upside5.5%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

ODFL FY2025 10-K: Yield Management Strong Amid Macro Headwinds

ODFL demonstrates strong yield discipline (+3.9% LTL rev/cwt) and operational excellence (99% on-time) amid macro volume weakness (-9.1% tonnage). Operating ratio deterioration (73.4%→75.2%) reflects ...