ON

ON Semiconductor Corporation

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$120.62

+$12.12 (10.04%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$68.28

Upside-43.40%

Signal0

Market Cap$27.0B

52W Range$31.04–$73.76

Next EarningsMay 4

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 3:10 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$29.40

Current Price$59.26

Upside / Down-50.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

15.0%/yr

±4.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

13.5%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

onsemi power/sensing silicon carbide EV content growth; auto electrification secular tailwind.

Bear Case

EV demand slowdown risk; auto inventory destocking; China competition in SiC.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

analysisMar 10

Conviction: unchanged

ON Semiconductor Q4 2025: Automotive Bottom + AI Data Center Inflection

ON navigating through the automotive inventory trough while AI data center revenue accelerates. SiC/GaN moat intact. B buyback signals management conviction. Key inflection: auto stabilization + AI da...

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K: Restructuring Reset with AI Data Center Optionality

Restructuring-driven margin expansion offset by AI TAM and ISG decline risks. SiC/GaN moats strong, but valuation already reflects recovery benefits. Fair value -52; conviction 6/10.