ORLY

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsNASDAQ
$91.05
+$3.46 (3.80%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$105.72
Upside+16.11%
Signal0
Market Cap$77.7B
52W Range$86.77–$108.72
Next EarningsApr 22

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$51.74
Current Price$87.30
Upside / Down-40.7%
P(Undervalued)2.3%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)91.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

2.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

17.0%/yr

±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

21.7%/yr

±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.

Trailing P/E31.0x
Forward P/E25.8x
P/S4.4x
EPS (TTM)$2.97
Analyst Target$105.72
Analyst Upside16.1%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1
Conviction: unchanged
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