ORLY

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsNASDAQ

$86.88

-$5.14 (-5.91%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$105.52

Upside+21.45%

Signal0

Market Cap$76.8B

52W Range$86.77–$108.72

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$51.74

Current Price$87.30

Upside / Down-40.7%

P(Undervalued)2.3%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)91.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

2.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

17.0%/yr

±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

21.7%/yr

±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

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Quick Take

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.

Trailing P/E30.8x

Forward P/E25.6x

P/S4.3x

EPS (TTM)$2.97

Analyst Target$105.52

Analyst Upside21.5%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

ORLY FY2025 10-K: Execution on Growth, Margin Improvement, Rising Leverage

ORLY FY2025: 6% sales growth, 4.7% comps (reacceleration), margin flat, EPS +10% on buybacks. Leverage rising (1.92x), DIY traffic declining, tariff pass-through driving pricing. Quality business, but...