Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
2.3% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
17.0%/yr
±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
21.7%/yr
±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.
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ORLY FY2025: 6% sales growth, 4.7% comps (reacceleration), margin flat, EPS +10% on buybacks. Leverage rising (1.92x), DIY traffic declining, tariff pass-through driving pricing. Quality business, but...