Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
36.5%/yr
±3.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
20.0%/yr
±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Q2 FY2026 shows 15% revenue growth to $2.6B, operating margin expanding 470bps YoY to 15.3%, NGS ARR of $6.3B, and FCF of $2.1B H1. Chronosphere acquisition closed Jan 29 for $3B; CyberArk closed post...