Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.
Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
50.3% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
6.1%/yr
±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
7.2%/yr
±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.
Sign in to unlockSingle-database HCM is a true moat — 99%+ data accuracy vs multi-vendor competitors. Beti payroll automation drives 15%+ margin expansion over 3 years. 91% retention even in soft macro. Non-discretionary payroll/HR spend. At $126, 39% upside to $175 target.
Revenue growth decelerating from 30%+ to mid-teens. Competitive pressure from Workday, ADP, Rippling. Smaller company base = sales cycle risk. Market sentiment negative on mid-cap SaaS.
Net revenue retention falls below 88%. Beti adoption stalls (track in quarterly disclosures). Workday/ADP materially wins PAYC enterprise clients. If growth decelerates to single digits before margins improve.
Updated Mar 13
Paycom expanded its revolving credit facility by ~.6M to .46B and has .56B remaining in share repurchase authorization. New Career and Succession Planning product launched. Stock at -124, down from a...
Paycom expanded credit facility by .6M through JPMorgan Chase to .46B total. Neutral-to-positive liquidity move. No strategic change to HCM thesis.
FY2025 confirms quality story: 91% retention (best ever), zero debt, OCF +27% to $679M, FCF ~$410M. Headline margin compression from $141M SBC accounting distortion. Revenue growth at ~9% is real dece...
Revenue +9% to .05B. OpInc -10.6% to M (27.6% margin) — BUT this is distorted by M SBC accounting swing (2024 had M reversal that didn't repeat). Normalized OpInc ~+15%. OCF +27% to M, FCF ~M. Zero de...
Paycom FY2025: High-quality SaaS with 91% net retention, expanding beyond payroll toward mid-market enterprise. Single-database moat and in-house R&D competitive advantage. Geographic expansion room (...