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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
5.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
11.2%/yr
±4.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
7.9%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Sign in to unlockPaychex payroll/HCM for SMB; attached services (retirement, insurance) growing; sticky revenue.
Employment slowdown risk; fintech competition from Rippling/Gusto; pricing pressure.
Updated Apr 7
Stock down 42% from 52w high ($161→$93). Bears: AI threatens payroll commoditization, Paycor integration messy, organic growth weak. Bulls: fPE 15.8x cheap for quality, 24% analyst upside to $115, $12...
Paychex reports strong Q2 with 17% service revenue growth (7% organic + Paycor contribution), though reported net income down 4% due to .9M acquisition costs. Adjusted metrics beat (+11% adj. NI, +21%...