Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
13.3%/yr
±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
11.1%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally.
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PCAR 10-K shows severe demand contraction and margin compression. Truck revenues down 22%, margins halved to 7.5%. Tariffs cost ~M. Market share losses in NA. PFS credit deteriorating (past dues up to...