PCAR

PACCAR Inc
IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryNASDAQ
$110.37
+$1.04 (0.94%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$127.08
Upside+15.14%
Signal0
Market Cap$66.9B
52W Range$84.65–$131.88
Next EarningsApr 28

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$58.96
Current Price$111.26
Upside / Down-47.0%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)96.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

13.3%/yr

±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

11.1%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally.

Trailing P/E26.1x
Forward P/E17.4x
P/S2.2x
EPS (TTM)$4.51
Analyst Target$127.08
Analyst Upside15.1%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
PACCAR 10-K Analysis: Revenue Contraction Amid Tariff Headwinds

PCAR 10-K shows severe demand contraction and margin compression. Truck revenues down 22%, margins halved to 7.5%. Tariffs cost ~M. Market share losses in NA. PFS credit deteriorating (past dues up to...