Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-8.3%/yr
±1.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-2.0%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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PFE FY2025: ~.2B revenue (down ~2.5% from ~.8B in 2024). International .5B = 41% of total. COVID product normalization masks ex-COVID stability. Massive patent cliff ahead: Eliquis (2028), Ibrance (20...