PHM

PulteGroup, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNASDAQ

$118.18

+$1.91 (1.62%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$139.50

Upside+18.04%

Signal9.02

Market Cap$22.1B

52W Range$88.07–$144.50

Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$119.83

Current Price$114.55

Upside / Down+4.6%

P(Undervalued)58.5%

P(20%+ Up)23.5%

P(15%+ Down)17.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

58.5% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

0.9%/yr

±5.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

2.4%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

PulteGroup homebuilder; entry-level/active adult demand; backlog visibility; rate buydown strategy.

Bear Case

Mortgage rate sensitivity; affordability ceiling; spec inventory risk if demand weakens.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

PHM 2025 10-K: Margin Compression & Affordability Headwinds

PHM reports 2025 with revenues down 3%, earnings down 28%. Gross margins compressed to 26.3% from 28.9% on elevated incentives and higher land costs. Order trends weak, backlog down 19%. Company expli...