PHM

PulteGroup, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNASDAQ

$118.03

+$0.96 (0.81%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$143.43

Upside+21.52%

Signal10.76

Market Cap$21.8B

52W Range$88.07–$144.50

Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$119.83

Current Price$114.55

Upside / Down+4.6%

P(Undervalued)58.5%

P(20%+ Up)23.5%

P(15%+ Down)17.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

58.5% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

0.9%/yr

±5.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

2.4%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

PHM 2025 10-K: Margin Compression & Affordability Headwinds

PHM reports 2025 with revenues down 3%, earnings down 28%. Gross margins compressed to 26.3% from 28.9% on elevated incentives and higher land costs. Order trends weak, backlog down 19%. Company expli...